Newsletter #29: New ATHs, bullish sentiment, and caution

Welcome to the twenty-ninth edition of our newsletter, dear readers! The markets remain strong, despite all the warning signs. Nvidia has reached a new all-time high, the S&P 500 is rising steadily, and even geopolitical tensions and unclear interest rate prospects have so far failed to slow down the rally. Beneath the surface, however, the picture is more nuanced: insiders are selling off in a big way, especially in the tech sector. Valuations are high, market breadth is thin, and only a few stocks are driving the story on Wall Street. At the same time, CTAs are currently positioning themselves procyclically long and could double their equity allocation in the short term. Sentiment therefore remains clearly in risk-on mode – exactly...