Newsletter #28: Tariffs, Trump, and the start of the reporting season

Welcome to the twenty-eighth edition of our newsletter, dear readers! In calendar week 28, the US markets were dominated by increasing trade tensions: Donald Trump announced new tariffs of 30% on imports from the EU and Mexico and 50% on Brazilian products, which are to come into force on August 1. These measures are causing international unrest, while possible countermeasures and legal action are already underway. At the same time, political pressure on the Fed is mounting: Trump is once again attacking Jerome Powell and wants to expand his influence on central bank policy. On the macro side, surveys indicate that the risk of recession is rising significantly, as tariffs are seen as...